ARTICLE AND VIDEOSA seismic event occurred in Iran on Saturday evening and was reported as a 4.4-magnitude earthquake.͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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A seismic event occurred in Iran on Saturday evening and was reported as a 4.4-magnitude earthquake. The epicenter of the quake was near the city of Aradan in Iran’s Semnan province, with tremors also felt in parts of eastern Tehran.
Almost immediately social media users began speculating that Tehran had conducted its first underground nuclear test. At this point, the best available evidence suggests that this was not a test but just another of the frequent earthquakes that hit Iran. Still, the fact that speculation was so rife emphasizes the critical situation in the Middle East and drives home the very real possibility that the Iranians could conduct a test at any time.
In fact, Iranian media is awash with statements by powerful and influential figures calling on the Iranian government to take the next step and acquire nuclear weapons. This suggests, strongly, not just that many in Iran want nuclear weapons but that the stage is being deliberately set for an announcement to the world that Iran is now a nuclear power.
In recent days, the Javan newspaper, affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has published multiple articles from individuals saying Iran must go nuclear and providing a detailed justification for doing so.
On October 3rd Gholam-Reza Sadeqian, the chief editor of Javan, wrote in the newspaper’s editorial column:
“I’m not discussing the religious aspects of legality” of nuclear weapons “but the scientific aspects of the nuclear program. From a scientific point of view, we can’t bar ourselves from research. We have indeed not barred ourselves from advances in nuclear science and technology … One thing is the taboo of using nuclear weapons, but mastering the science of nuclear weapons and reaching the point of building a weapon when we wish to do so is an altogether different subject.”
Sadeqian continued: “Some experts in Iranian studies and Shia theology may tell” Western governments “that the religious prohibition” against building a nuclear weapon “is not deception … However, there will certainly also be others who will tell the Americans that Shia theology is dynamic and issues new rulings at inflection points … This keeps the Americans in a state of constant guessing … For them, Iran will remain a state that has no nuclear weapons but may opt to have one … It can have it instantaneously.”
On October 3rd under the headline “Changing the Nuclear Doctrine in the Face of the Israeli Super-Destructor,” Ali Qanadi, an international affairs editor for Javan, wrote:
“In Tehran, we hear arguments such as ‘Seyyed Hassan is gone, but Nasrallah will come’” a play on the meaning of Nasrallah, which is divine victory, “and ‘Hezbollah is alive,’ which are meant to convey the message that social phenomena are resilient. However, the reality is that weak material foundations of social institutions, be it government, group, movement, or any other thing, in the best of circumstances corrode and weaken those institutions.”
“What is the solution …? The past year has shown that diplomacy based on international public opinion could not stop the super-destructiveness of Israel. The limited military response option, such as Operation Truthful Covenant II,” a reference to Iran’s October 1 retaliatory attack against Israel, “was effective … but may not have established deterrence, and there is a risk for further escalation … Other people may offer creative solutions to contain” Israel, “but there is also an immediate solution ready at hand: changing Iran’s nuclear doctrine. For the past 50-odd years (the Pahlavi era included), Iran has engaged in peaceful use of nuclear energy. Today, Tehran has the capacity, opportunity, and incentive to change this program … As Kenneth Waltz used to say: ‘Peace-lovers ought to love the nukes.’ The only factor that prevented direct wars between the superpowers was the balance of terror.”
A group of 39 Iranian parliamentarians has also directly appealed to the country’s Security Council, requesting permission to develop nuclear weapons due to the threat from Israel.
Many Persian-language social media users on major platforms like X and Telegram, as well as domestic platforms such as Eitaa, reacted to the earthquake Saturday by celebrating what they took to be an actual nuclear test.
“I feel proud … Iran unveiled its magical mushroom—felicitations to all whose hearts beat for Iran.”
“An Iranian bomb is our inalienable right.”.
“Our people have the right to enjoy nuclear deterrence. Have the courage to take the historical decision [to go nuclear.”
“It’s true that the decision to build a nuclear weapon and whether it is religiously banned or not lies with the Leader … When there is talk of building nuclear weapons, it is for a balance of power and deterrence, not actual use.”
All of this comes on the heels of previous demands by Iranian hardliners that Iran detonate a nuclear weapon and make clear to Israel that further attacks on Iranian territory may be met with a nuclear response. Absent from all of these statements is any evidence of the longstanding Iranian claim that they do not have a nuclear weapons program. Unstated but understood in all this is also the very real possibility that within months Tehran will be dealing not with Biden and Harris but with Trump and Vance. Whatever window of opportunity exists, in other words, may be about to close.
So, did Iran just test a nuclear weapon? Probably not, but it may be about to.
