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Egypt Aflame: What Does It Mean?
January 30, 2011
The world is watching violent demonstrations in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities. There has been a call for a General Strike until (unspecified) demands are met. The Mubarak government is reshuffling. One new story claims that Mubarak’s family left the country. President Obama is verbally preaching caution and non-violence, and there is a report that the United States has threatened to cut military aid to Egypt.
There is a natural inclination for people and nations to react to significant events. Pro-democracy advocates believe that the United States and the West should help in overthrowing Mubarak. They argue that the people in the streets of Egypt are our natural allies — they share our values.
Others: John Bolton, Israel’s intelligence services, and
Barry Rubin are (to various degrees) counseling a more cautious approach. They do not subscribe to the theory that the protesters are necessarily our friends. The self-appointed “leader” of the opposition in Egypt is the former United Nations nuclear inspector who helped the Iranian nuclear program to proceed. He has also openly sought the support of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. He has also said he would recognize Hamas and lift all sanctions against them. At best, his actions should give us pause.
Barry Rubin reminds us that our interventionist policies in Iran helped Khomeini to secure policy and that are past policies in Egypt have not served our national interest.:
Even more forgotten is that, regarding Egypt, that’s how the whole thing started! Back in 1952, U.S. policymakers supported–don’t exaggerate this, it was not a U.S. engineered coup but they were favorable to — an army takeover. The idea was that the officers would be friendly to the United States, hostile to the USSR and Communism, and more likely to enjoy mass support.
In other words, policymakers and experts are endorsing a strategy today that has led to two of the biggest disasters in the history of U.S. Middle East policy. And now it is even worse, since we have these precedents and particularly the point about what happens when Islamists take power.
There is no organized moderate group in Egypt. Even the most important past such organization, the Kifaya movement, has already been taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood. Since 2007 its leader has been Abdel Wahhab al-Messiri, a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood and a virulent anti-Semite.
Needless to say there are many forces at work in Egypt. A respected intelligence group is reporting that Hamas has sent operatives and fighters into Egypt to help the opposition to Mubarak. Meanwhile Mubarak has named chief of intelligence as his second in command.
Israel has a lot at stake in the outcome of this upheaval. For one its quiet border with Egypt may become another security problem.
