By SAAD EDDIN IBRAHIM
The term Empty Quarter refers to a desolate stretch of land in the southeastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula. More recently it is aptly used as a metaphor to refer to the quarter of the Muslim world that is still undemocratic. Other Muslim majority countries, such as Indonesia (250 million people), Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nigeria (over 100 million each), and Turkey (80 million) have been steadily democratizing. Most Arab countries, on the other hand, are lagging behind. They make up one fourth of the Muslim world (300 million out of 1.2 billion).
One year after President Barack Obama’s highly celebrated speech in Cairo supporting Arab democracy, there is a clear and loud expression of disappointment in the region.
The pathological fear of Islamists coming to power if there were free and fair elections seems to have served Arab dictators well. Although Mr. Obama himself made it clear in Cairo that he does not believe the proposition of incompatibility between Islam and democracy, his administration has clearly opted for a policy favoring regional stability over democratic governance.
Reducing the funding requested for democracy assistance in next year’s U.S. aid to Egypt was a clear message. So was the mild State Department response when Egypt recently extended 29 years of “emergency” law for another two years. That, conveniently, is just long enough to get through a presidential election in Egypt next year. Arab autocrats could not be more heartened.
Some of these autocrats have succeeded in convincing the Obama administration that they can bring about a peace agreement between Palestinians and Israelis. If they really could, why haven’t they done so over the last three decades? Keeping that false hope alive allows them to continue ruling without serious Western challenge.
George W. Bush is missed by activists in Cairo and elsewhere who—despite possible misgivings about his policies in Iraq and Afghanistan—benefited from his firm stance on democratic progress. During the time he kept up pressure on dictators, there were openings for a democratic opposition to flourish. The current Obama policy seems weak and inconsistent by contrast.
It is not too late to salvage the democratization process in the region. Lebanon, Kuwait and Iraq have had contested elections in the last 12 months. Voter turnout exceeded that in the U.S. and most Western democracies—a clear indication of a robust participatory political culture.
Egyptians are poised for two crucial elections of their own—a parliamentary one this November and a presidential one a year later. Egyptians have a deep yearning to restore the Liberal Age they once had (1860s to 1950s). What’s needed from the Obama administration and other Western democracies is a demand for free and fair contested elections under the watchful eyes of international observers.
By making such a demand, Mr. Obama could restore Egyptians’ trust in him and in a principled America. He would also help fill up the Empty Quarter. As Egypt goes so goes the rest of the Arab world.
Mr. Ibrahim, an Egyptian democracy advocate and sociologist, is currently a visiting professor at Drew University.
