By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL
Imagine Jason Altmire bound, at the end of a plank, a band of Democratic pirates behind him, a swarm of constituent sharks circling below. Imagine that, and you understand what Democrats are doing to their members with health care.
Mr. Altmire is the Pennsylvania House Democrat who has become a key possible switch vote in his party’s plans to pass unpopular health legislation. The second-termer voted no on the first House bill for the simple reason that it offended his constituents and his own supposed principles on cost and taxes. But with Mrs. Pelosi short on votes, Mr. Altmire is being made to reconsider. In the process he’s becoming a symbol of the political abyss to which Democrats are consigning their “majority makers.”
The Pennsylvania Democrat knew exactly what he was doing with his first no vote in November. Yes, the press love to note his suburban Pittsburgh district has a slight Democratic registration edge and is therefore “swing.” What Mr. Altmire knows is that the past decade his voters have swung in only one philosophical direction.
In 2000, they gave Republican Melissa Hart 59% of the vote; President Bush won the district with 52%. In 2004 Pennsylvania went for John Kerry, but the fourth district stuck with Mr. Bush—54%. It cast its lot in 2006 with the Republican nominee for governor. In 2008, Mr. McCain, defying the Obama wave, netted 55%—an 11-percentage-point victory.
The district, in other words, is the classic center-right area that Mr. Altmire’s party bet big on in the 2006 election. And he won by being the untypical Democrat. He campaigned as pro-veteran, pro-business, pro-drilling, pro-life. He eked out 52% to beat Ms. Hart. He’s kept his seat by flacking his conservative credentials, most recently flying to Haiti to help jailed missionaries. “My district isn’t there,” he said, bluntly, to explain his November no.
Mrs. Pelosi and the left are there, and unfortunately for Mr. Altmire, they had him pegged as a junior member vulnerable to tender persuasion. Within a week of his no vote, Moveon.org was up in his district with vicious ads, warning they’d mobilize against him this fall. In the past, Democratic House leaders helped get Mr. Altmire’s legislation and amendments a vote, so he could show folks back home he was effective. No more. Party money—crucial for a new member in a district that leans right? Done. Union dollars—more than a half-million that went to Mr. Altmire’s past two campaigns? Bye bye.
By the relaunch of the Democratic health strategy, Mr. Altmire was sounding less sure and his party redoubled its efforts. President Obama summoned him to the White House, twice. Rep. Jim Clyburn, chief House vote counter, publicly singled him out as a possible flip. Democrats spread an internal analysis of all the “benefits” his district would see from legislation. The SEIU put up ads, claiming Mr. Altmire is letting the insurance companies “win.”
The threat the left has presented to Mr. Altmire is thus clear. Vote yes, and you will at least have the (tiny) Democratic base and dollars. Vote no and you are on your own in a district that is already unhappy with your party. Death by sword or death by sharks? Choose!
Let’s just say the sharks remain far more deadly. Mr. Altmire’s district is a perfect reflection of the country, and has only become more “not there” since November. His offices have been besieged by anti-ObamaCare protestors. A plane is circling his district with a tow rope reading “Tell Rep. Altmire to Vote No on Health Care.” His staff have been overwhelmed by angry phone calls. Representing a demographically older district, Mr. Altmire is facing the ire of 135,000 Medicare recipients because of proposed cuts.
A recent poll in his district asked the straightforward question, “Do you generally support or oppose the reform plan?” Precisely 29% support it. Conversely, 60% believe it will raise their health costs, 72% believe it will raise the deficit, and 68% believe it will cause their taxes to go up. Republicans have recruited former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan to challenge Mr. Altmire. She has money, name recognition, and is relishing the opening that a yes vote would give her.
And things can only get worse. Mr. Altmire went out of his way to condemn the House’s outrageous “deeming” strategy; he’ll be party to it with a yes vote. The Democrat is promising to improve the Senate bill via the accompanying reconciliation package. But Senate Republicans are vowing to shred that sidecar bill, leaving Mr. Altmire stuck with his vote for the Senate ugly.
He might take comfort that he’s not alone. Ohio’s John Boccieri, New York’s Scott Murphy, Colorado’s Betsy Markey—all are huddled at the end of the plank, staring at the fins. They might consider that those Democrats who voted no and remain no are getting some gratitude from constituents. Or that the threat from the left might end up being nothing more than that.
Mutiny isn’t easy, but it still offers better odds.
