A striking pattern has emerged in the first few months of President Donald Trump’s second term: job numbers are being revised upward – a quiet but telling reversal from the trends we saw under President Joe Biden, whose administration consistently saw job numbers revised downward after initial release.
The past two months are indicative of this trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) initially reported 139,000 new jobs in May. That number was later bumped up to 144,000, an increase of 5,000. April’s total was also revised upward by 11,000 to 158,000. With June’s gain of 147,000 jobs, the three-month average now sits at a steady 150,000.
While these aren’t eye-popping figures, the direction of the revisions tells an important story – particularly when compared to what we saw under President Joe Biden.
In the build-up to Biden’s re-election bid, the initial jobs numbers were overstated by an astonishing amount. For 10 straight months in 2023, BLS revised its job creation estimates downward. In June 2023, for example, the government originally reported 209,000 new jobs. That figure was later cut nearly in half, to 105,000.
Overall, from March 2023 to March 2024, BLS overstated job growth by a jaw-dropping 818,000 – an average of more than 68,000 jobs per month. For context, that’s five times the agency’s typical margin of error.
That discrepancy reeks of corruption – rewriting the story after it’s already dominated the news. Those errors were only acknowledged months later, long after they had already shaped headlines and campaign speeches.
So why does this matter?
Because that first jobs number is the one that matters most. It’s the figure the corporate press runs with. It makes the headlines. It shapes public opinion. It drives market expectations and is baked into campaign messaging within hours. The BLS may quietly post a revision weeks later, but by then, the political spin cycle has moved on. Very few outlets ever update their coverage or correct the narrative.
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