It has gone from science fiction to a matter of serious military planning in a remarkably short time.
Now, the notion of actual kinetic warfare in space — perhaps a Chinese attack on satellites to cripple the U.S. military as the precursor to an invasion of Taiwan — is fueling a high-stakes debate in national security circles over how to best protect valuable assets in orbit from adversaries with increasingly dangerous space capabilities.
One of the key conversations is whether the U.S. should pursue offensive weapons or restrict its space-based assets to defensive capabilities.
High-level national security sources say the intensifying discussion will be a key topic at the Spacepower 2025 conference this week in Orlando, Florida. The three-day gathering, organized by the Space Force Association, will bring together power players from the military and defense industry.
The Space Force, which has existed as its own military branch for less than six years, has been thrust into the center of major military and national security planning debates across virtually all domains.
Analysts predict that conflicts on Earth may begin in space. Enemies may assess that the best way to keep the U.S. military out of a fight is to eliminate much of its communications, logistics, surveillance and targeting infrastructure.
That means a 21st-century attack on satellites that could be difficult to predict and even more difficult to stop.
“It begins small. We don’t realize at first that we are under attack. When we do finally see it, things escalate quickly,” Tory Bruno, president and CEO of United Launch Alliance, wrote in a recent op-ed for The Washington Times in which he sketched out what a war in space could look like.
“The enemy will have prepared in secret. Initial maneuvers will appear routine. Suddenly, without warning, declaration or even threats, we lose communications over Taiwan and the Strait of Malacca,” he said. “We task our spy satellites to stare at these locations, but they are unresponsive. We pivot to our Space-Based Infrared System missile warning satellite constellation to look for any thermal heat signatures of activity, but these have just gone offline. Shortly after that, GPS over the Pacific region becomes spotty and intermittent.”
At the same time, Chinese forces would make a move on the island democracy of Taiwan or some other military target in the region. To guard against that, Mr. Bruno said, the Space Force and Pentagon, and its private industry partners, “must be able to conduct prolonged combat operations in orbit, moving assets to replace losses, relocating high-value satellites and coordinating and commanding offensive operations against threats — all in real time, with secure and uninterruptible surveillance, communications, command and control.”
Offensive weapons in space?
Replacing lost assets quickly is one part of a complex equation. Another is whether the U.S. puts offensive weapons in space, the kinds of assets that could theoretically take out Russian or Chinese satellites if necessary. It’s not clear whether America’s long-term military doctrine in space will embrace that approach.
“Now we have to say: Are we going to be defensive, offensive, or are we just going to put capability on orbit?” said Robert Lightfoot, president of Lockheed Martin Space.